A real transition will happen in bursts. I’d love to see stats by interest categories, because I suspect what happens is enough prominent people in some community move at to bring the rest with them, but until that happens there’s no budge.

They’ll make a bespoke federated service, collect all the data of their users (and all the people on other networks their users interact with), make it all shiny and fancy and add a ton of improvements most networks don’t have yet. And if they can reach a critical mass of users, they can track a huge cross section of federated activity, and force networks to play by their rules or lose access to their entire userbase. It’s the same thing google did to email.

Are XMPP or Matrix really any more seachable? I’m all in on FOSS, clearly, but do they fix that complaint? I feel like the real solution is separating chat and longer term info, and putting the longer term info on a wiki or other public and indexable format.

You’re talking about real privacy, the critiques above are all about exposure reduction (incorrectly framed as privacy). Good retention policies are still important for situations like trying to delete something that you regret posting.

An example I could think of from the other site is the very common occurrence of posting some relationship questions and then deleting them later so that the person they’re about can’t stumble onto them. In that case you want finding the thing you deleted to be nontrivial enough that it can’t accidentally be found. Someone with both the skills and knowledge about what they’re looking for may still find it, because it was once public, but that’s a different threat.